Somalia Faces Famine Risk

Southern Somalia is at risk of famine between October 2026 and January 2027, according to FEWS NET, a food security early warning network. The network warned that extreme and widespread flooding during the Deyr season could deteriorate the situation further and increase the risk of famine.

Parts of Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan are expected to remain in IPC Phase 4, known as Emergency, where households face severe food shortages and are forced to adopt damaging coping strategies to meet basic food needs. Some households are already facing IPC Phase 5, known as Catastrophe, where families face an extreme lack of food and are unable to meet basic consumption needs without emergency assistance.

The Somali Red Crescent Society, with support from the International Committee of the Red Cross, is training 72 responders, including 60 community volunteers, to prepare for expected El Niño-related flooding along Somalia's Juba and Shabelle rivers. The training focuses on practical skills needed during flood emergencies, such as boat handling and safety procedures.

Somalia's health sector is also facing challenges, with nearly 600 health facilities at risk of closure due to a decline in health funding. Health and Social Care Minister Dr. Ali Haji Adan said the facilities depended heavily on external funding, which had dropped significantly, threatening the continuity of health services.

Despite the challenges, Somalia's 2026 Gu harvest performed better overall than the previous year, with crop production 18 percent higher than in 2025 and 32 percent above the long-term average. However, production remains uneven across the country, and food prices are a major concern, with the price of white maize in Qoryoley remaining 88 percent higher than a year earlier.

The minister said the ministry is working to secure sustainable financing for the at-risk facilities to ensure communities continue receiving health services. The ministry plans to recruit hundreds of midwives across the country to expand maternal and child health services to districts and villages that currently lack adequate care.

The Food and Agriculture Organization warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could bring significantly above-normal rainfall to much of central and southern Somalia, with some areas having as much as a 90 percent probability of receiving above-normal rainfall. Somalia Disaster Management Agency authorities estimate that between 2.5 million and 3.5 million people could be exposed to flooding this season.