Iran May Charge Toll

Middle East oil exports have surpassed pre-war levels, with crude exports reaching 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day in late September. This increase is largely due to US ships escorting tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers reducing the risk of Iranian attacks.

Despite the surge in oil exports, prices remain high. Analysts attribute this to elevated insurance rates driven by fears of Iranian attacks and the possibility of a return to war.

Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, suggests that Gulf countries may be paying Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. She says this could be a significant portion of the cargo's value.

Brohard presented this claim as speculation, and it has not been independently verified. However, she believes that countries are racing to export as much oil as possible before the war restarts.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway, with one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports passing through it before the war. The US-Israel war on Iran began in February, and Tehran has attempted to blockade the strait and attack vessels.

The claim of a potential toll being paid to Iran raises questions about the sustainability of this arrangement. Brohard notes that the US escorting ships and countries paying Iran for safe passage are both unsustainable solutions.

As the situation continues to unfold, the impact of a potential toll on oil prices and the war remains to be seen.